STATE VULNERABILITY AND THE ESCALATION OF THE LAKUWA THREAT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This paper analyzes the rapid rise of Lakurawa, a terrorist group that emerged in the early 2000s in Kebbi and Sokoto States and has since evolved into a dangerous transnational threat across Northwestern and North-Central Nigeria. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of security reports, military updates, and academic literature, the study mapped out the group's expansion and operational strategies. The findings revealed that Lakurawa capitalized on weak border security, poor local intelligence, and the political instability of the 2023 Niger Republic coup for its territorial expansion. These vulnerabilities allowed the group to transform from a localized militia into a sophisticated network spanning at least seven Nigerian states, including Zamfara, Niger, Kaduna, Kogi, and Kwara. Rather than relying solely on violence, Lakurawa functions as a shadow government: it enforces strict socio-religious rules, extracts forced taxes, and deploys "soft conquests" by purchasing local land at inflated prices. The group’s recruitment thrives on porous borders, weak state presence, and the economic desperation of rural youth. To counter this threat, the paper recommends shifting from a reactive defence to a proactive strategy. Key proposals include deploying agile, forest-ready military units, launching drone surveillance along border corridors, and making substantial investments in mechanized agriculture to offer rural youth viable economic alternatives to insurgency.